India’s inflation quickens, industrial output grows

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2015 in Gandhinagar.

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2015 in Gandhinagar.


MUMBAI: India’s consumer price inflation quickened in December for the first time in five months, data showed Monday, dimming hopes of a new year rate cut by the central bank.

But more promising figures released simultaneously by the government showed a growth in monthly industrial output, reversing a sharp fall.

Despite the continued slump in global crude oil prices, consumer inflation rose to 5.0 percent year-on-year in December, up from 4.38 percent in November which had marked a near three-year low.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been under pressure from the government and markets to cut high interest rates to boost economic growth, but governor Raghuram Rajan has insisted on first winning the battle against inflation.

“The probability of any rate cut is very low right now. The bump-up in inflation, though expected, shows how tough the RBI’s job of taking a call on when to reduce rates is going to be,” said Arun Singh, senior economist with Dun & Bradstreet.

The RBI, which is due to hold its next policymaking meeting on February 3, has not cut rates since May 2013.

The pick up in industrial output will however come as a welcome boost to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who came to power in May last year promising to reignite flagging economic growth.

Production by India’s factories, mines and utilities rose 3.8 percent in November compared to a year earlier, the latest data showed, slightly more than analysts had predicted.

“The positive industrial production number will be heartening for PM Modi, particularly as he woos large foreign investment delegations and global CEOS attending the ‘Vibrant Gujarat Summit’,” said Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist for IHS.

The ongoing summit in Modi’s western home state is designed to attract investment to India. It has been attended by a host of top global companies and politicians including US Secretary of State John Kerry.

At the event on Sunday, Modi promised “truly unlimited” reforms to transform India’s economy — Asia’s third largest — into a global powerhouse.


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