Yossi Mekelberg

By : Yossi Mekelberg

:: Few outside the US welcomed Donald Trump’s election victory as much as Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank and their right-wing supporters in Israel. The prospect of moving the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and having someone in the White House who would be more sympathetic to settlement expansion, made them salivate.

In their nationalist-messianic vision, Trump was the newest revelation that would drive the last nail into the coffin of a peace between Israel and the Palestinians based on the two-state solution. His presidency, they hoped, would once and for all end Palestinian aspirations for self-determination. In their minds, this would clear the path for their biblical delusion of Greater Israel.

Promises derived from divinity do not seem to carry much weight with Trump. He is not different in this sense from any other US president, who promised before the elections to move the embassy to Jerusalem and reversed it shortly after assuming office. Similar to his decision to attack in Syria, he does not feel obliged or restricted by his stated positions before he became president.

But his anti-Muslim stand made his declared intentions markedly more convincing when it came to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Appointing a new ambassador to Israel, David Friedman — who is closely associated with one of the most extreme settlements, and who is an ardent and vile critic of those who pursue a just peace with the Palestinians — reinforced the view that a new dawn for Israeli settlements had broken over the White House.

In the twilight months of the Obama administration, and as Trump basked in his president-elect status, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu turned his complacency levels up full volume. Since then, almost every day has seen an announcement of construction of thousands of new homes in Jewish settlements, as well as plans for unrestrained building in Jewish neighborhoods in Jerusalem.

Less than three months into the new presidency, it seems the tone is changing in Washington rather quickly vis-a-vis brokering peace. The regrettable appointment of Friedman was not reversed, but the key words on everyone’s lips are reaching a deal.

Trump — in his customary, overly simplistic view — believes past failures in reaching a negotiated peace is down to poor negotiators who were not as astute dealmakers as himself. Every dispute or conflict is one dealmaker away from a resolution, according to this view. It might prove to be a lot more complex than that, but for the time being it creates some buzz and a rethink in Israel about unabated settlement expansion and the need not to upset Trump.

Sending his special envoy Jason Greenblatt for talks in Jerusalem and Ramallah, and for talks with Arab leaders on the side-lines of the recent Arab League Summit, leaves the impression that Trump has a genuine interest in brokering a deal.

Yossi Mekelberg

Sending his special envoy Jason Greenblatt for talks in Jerusalem and Ramallah, and for talks with Arab leaders on the side-lines of the recent Arab League Summit, leaves the impression that Trump has a genuine interest in brokering a deal. He reiterated this last week in talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdallah. Greenblatt, despite expectations to the contrary, projected readiness to listen to both sides’ views and concerns.

Moreover, renowned US lawyer Alan Dershowitz, who is known for always arguing the case for Israel, revealed that Trump confided in him his determination to end the conflict via a two-state solution. Inadvertently, because of his belligerent approach Trump is taken seriously by Netanyahu, who for the last eight years became accustomed to a president whom he clashed with, but who did not do much to exert his influence to change Israel’s behavior.

Trump’s lack of subtlety or care for details would commonly be regarded as unhelpful, even harmful, for constructive and successful negotiations. But after nearly a quarter of a century of a process without peace, details have become an excuse not to make substantial progress.

Just maybe, the fear of the unpredictable Trump as a peace-broker, who combines the leverage of the most powerful country in the world with an uncompromising expectation that his wishes should be fulfilled, can advance the peace process in a way that previous US presidents did not.

Any of his electioneering promises on which he has tried to deliver, he has done so in his own brutal and damaging style. He does it in defiance of rational decision-making, showing very little learning curve in the process. It is rather surprising that one of his first departures from his campaign promises was to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and that he has even applied some limited rationality to it.

He seems to have shelved the idea of moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and accepted that settlements are a major obstacle to peace. It is hence not surprising that Netanyahu initiated a unilateral move in his own Cabinet, pre-empting a potential clash with the US.

Trump — considering his personal characteristics, what he stands for and the people he is surrounded by — is not an obvious peacemaker in this never-ending conflict. But there might be just a flicker of hope that on this occasion, someone with more determination than knowledge or understanding can push the sides to do things that others before him did not manage. On this occasion, his fundamental flaws can serve as an asset.

Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations at Regent’s University London, where he is head of the International Relations and Social Sciences Program. He is also an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media.

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