Diana Moukalled

By : Diana Moukalled

:: Lebanon is living in a constitutional bubble that is about to burst because of the deficit of its political class and its inability to arrive at a new electoral law. After two consecutive extensions to the House of Deputies with ongoing acute political crises, Parliament is facing a third crunch time amid a hiatus of political forces, underpinned by their failure to reach agreement on such a piece of legislation.

On April 12, President Michel Aoun used his constitutional right to postpone the meeting of the House of Deputies for a month. His aim was to block a legislative session called for by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to extend Parliament’s term after an agreement on a new electoral law could not be reached.

The eve of that meeting saw the specter of another civil war because of the ongoing malaise in Parliament. Christian deputies and their supporters threatened to take to the streets in protest against the session for extension. Berri’s Amal movement and Hezbollah believe Aoun’s extension refusal would mean a vacuum in the leadership of the House of Deputies that would target their Shiite sect.

Aoun succeeded in delaying this bottleneck for a month via his constitutional right. It is the first time this has happened in the history of the Lebanese republic. The delay is about to end — the House is due to meet on May 15 — yet there is still no initiative for a new law and Lebanon is still in a political freeze. The only possible advancement is for political forces to agree on total percentages, leaving discussion on the distribution of electoral districts to negotiations and horse-trading.

In public the national debate takes on a constitutional character, but the political problem relates to a fundamental imbalance in favor of the armed militia Hezbollah.

Diana Moukalled

This crisis reveals silent disagreement between Amal and Hezbollah on one hand, and Aoun and his son-in-law Gibran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, on the other. In public the national debate takes on a constitutional character, but the political problem relates to a fundamental imbalance in favor of the armed militia Hezbollah.

The coming days are expected to witness more constitutional crises in light of contradictory interpretations of proposed electoral laws, but the problem lies elsewhere. What of the strategic alliance between Hezbollah and Aoun? The party is clearly responding to Aoun via Berri, and the lack of an answer from the president to Hezbollah’s demands is aimed at preventing a parliamentary vacuum.

If this is not fixed soon, Lebanon will enter a new crisis in light of new complexities relating to constitutional aspects of the House of Deputies and the country’s other institutions. This is a great worry for Hezbollah and Berri. Is the current crisis a local failure only or an extension of regional divisions? This will become clearer in the coming days and maybe hours.

Diana Moukalled is a veteran journalist with extensive experience in both traditional and new media. She is also a columnist and freelance documentary producer. She can be reached on Twitter @dianamoukalled.

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in the Column section are their own and do not reflect RiyadhVision’s point-of-view.

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